Yankees Outfield Off-Season Preview
I’ve reviewed the pitching, catching, and infield so far, now it’s time to review the outfield before I reveal my masterplan for the off-season. The outfield didn’t provide a lot of production outside of Aaron Judge in the first half, but using Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield more and Brett Gardner’s minor resurgence gave us production in the outfield. It is the strongest area of the offense, but there are question marks about depth and who will play center field.
Coming Back: The “goal line package,” outfield of Judge, Stanton, and Joey Gallo will return to the Yankees. Judge and Stanton were the only Yankees who didn’t underperform this year. Judge had the best year he’s had since his rookie year. Not only did he stay healthy and play his most games, but he posted a slash of .287/.373.544 (.917 OPS and 148 wRC+). He won the Fielding Bible Award as the best right field in baseball as well. He likely would have been in the MVP conversation if not for all-time great seasons by Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. With Judge going into the last year of his contract, it’s likely they’ll have talks about an extension this winter. Stanton silenced the haters in a big way this year. After only playing 41 games in the previous two seasons because of various injuries, Stanton had his best season since coming to New York. Particularly, he was dominate from August on batting .300 with 19 home runs, 51 RBIs, and a wRC+ of 160. He also played solid defense in the outfield in the 26 games he played out there. Gallo, however was mostly disappointing with the Yankees. He did hit 13 home runs with the Yankees, but he also hit .160, struck out almost 40 percent of his at bats, and had a wRC+ of 95 after being traded to the Yankees. They aren’t going to get rid of Gallo after two bad months nor should they. Even people who supported the trade like me knew Gallo would strike out a lot. They also knew he walks and hits a lot of home runs. He led the league in walks and hit 38 home runs, one less than Judge, which was good enough for 9th in the American League. Before being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees, Gallo was on the way to having the best full season of his career (the year he made his previous all star appearance, his season ended up late July when he got hit with the pitch and broke his hand). In addition to his elite power and plate discipline, he was a finalist for the Gold Glove this year. I’d like to see more goal line package in 2022. I like the idea of having flexibility in the DH spot because it can be used to give guys rest without giving them a full day off. How, they still could use somebody who’s a Center Fielder by trade and I’ll talk more about the options later on. One of those options is Estevan Florial. The former top prospects star has dimmed a bit over the years, but he has been in limited playing time at the major league level. His overall numbers in Triple A do leave a little something to be desired, but he finished strong going .243/.341/.500 (.841 OPS) from September on in Scranton. His high strikeout rate is what’s slowed his path to the majors, but he was able to cut that down a little bit this year. He is highly unlikely to be on the opening day roster, but will likely be a depth option if we have injury problems. As far as his ceiling, we need to see him play more in the majors to find out. He might not be the 20-20 candidate with a good glove that people thought he’d be when the hype train started, but based on his skillset, I think he at least as a role as a fourth outfielder in his future.
Probably Back: For the second time in three years Aaron Hicks is recovering from a major surgery in the off-season. After the 2019 season, he had Tommy John, this year, he had surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. Overall, his tenure with the Yankees has been productive. He’s an up above average defender, with good plate discipline, with good pop, and strikes out less than 20 percent of the time. He’s also a switch hitter. However, he already started regressing defensively even before the injury and pass production doesn’t guarantee future results. Beat Writer, Bryan Hoch, thinks the Yankees are banking on a bounce year from Hicks and they might have to. He still has four years left on his contract so he might not be easy to trade. There is a way Hicks contract could become movable though, a salary floor. Rumors circulated months ago that Major League Baseball could add a salary floor during CBA negotiations this off-season to encourage teams to spend. The Guardians and Marlins are two teams below $100 million in payroll that could look for some outfield help.
50/50: The Yankees longest tenured player, Brett Gardner, has another mutual option. He can opt out, the Yankees can opt out, or he can come back to the team next year. This is the same situation Gardner’s been in since 2019. He comes back on a one year deal with an option as a backup outfielder, somebody gets hurt, and he ends up playing every day. In 2019 and 2020, Judge and Stanton missed time, this year, it was Hicks and Clint Frazier who got hurt. Early in the season, it looked like Gardner would definitely be done with the Yankees. He struggled batting .194 and his on base percentage was higher than his slugging percentage, meaning he hit for almost no power. He posted a wRC+ of 75. However, he had a strong second half going .250/.344/.418 after the break with a wRC+ of 111. Gardner is a solid backup option. He’s fast, he has good plate discipline, and as a lefty, he brings balance to the lineup. He’s also known to battle and raise pitcher’s pitch counts. Gardner said after the Wild Card Game loss to the Red Sox that he wants to come back, but is the feeling mutual? Tim Locastro is in limbo right now. Locastro came to the Yankees from Arizona in a July 1st trade. Locastro was meant to be a stopgap before the bigger names were traded at the deadline. Unforunately, Locastro, who is one of the fastest men in baseball, didn’t last long with the Yankees. He tore his ACL after nine games and missed the rest of the season. The outfielder who’s know for speed and defense might be a solid backup option, but he’s arbitration eligible and might not be ready for opening day. It’s also too early to tell how the surgery will affect his speed.
Probably Gone: Greg Allen was a sparkplug for the Yankees when he got promoted to the majors during a Covid outbreak. In his 15 games with the Yankees, he hit .270/.417/.432 and went 5 for 5 in stolen bases attempts before being sent down. He was brought back for the Wild Card Game as a pinch running/emergency outfield option but didn’t get in the game. However, he’s 28 years old. Could he be a backup outfielder in the Majors? Maybe? Could that have been his breakout season? Unlikely. He’s also out of minor league options so if he doesn’t make the roster on opening day, he’ll have to go through waivers. It’s also telling that he wasn’t recalled earlier despite dominating at Triple A and his play during his short time in the Majors. Florial was recalled from Scranton more than once since Allen’s last appearance for the Yankees. Even Jonathan Davis, who’s since been designated for assignment, made semi-regular appearances as a defensive replacement and pinch runner after Allen was sent back to Scranton.
Gone: Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier were once thought to be keep pieces to the Baby Bombers dynasty, however they’ve both regressed and don’t have a future in New York. Andujar came in second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2018. He hit .297 with 47 doubles, 27 home runs, and 92 RBIs. He was one of the worst defenders in baseball that year, but because he was young, many thought it was fixable. But the next year, he got hurt and missed most of the season. Because of Gio Urshela’s emergence, he was forced to learn Left Field. Not only was he still bad defensively in Left Field, but he hasn’t produced offensively since his rookie year. Believe it or not, after the 2016 season, Frazier was ranked higher than both Judge and Gleyber Torres on MLB.com’s Top Prospect list. However, it’s been all downhill from there. His issues started in 2018 when he concussion problems led to him missing most of the season. In 2019, injuries to the Yankees outfield allowed him to earn playing time and he posted a 108 wRC+. However, his bad attitude and poor defense caused him to be the first victim of the Yankees roster crunch. In 2020, it looked like he finally put it together on defense. He had 3 DRS and was nominated for a Gold Glove, leading the Yankees to open the season with him in Left. However, in 2021 he regressed on both sides of the ball. We learned July 1st, when he was placed on the IL, that he was suffering from a mystery ailment thought to be vertigo. We later learned that he was dealing with blurred vision too. He attempted to rehab and come back, but his symptoms continued and he was shut down. Because his condition hasn’t had an official diagnosis, there are doubts about whether Frazier will ever play again. I hope he does, but if he does make a comeback, it almost certainly won’t be with the Yankees.
Potential 40 man additions: Everson Pereira is one of the most intriguing Rule 5 eligible prospects in the Yankees farm system. He was a highly touted prospect coming out of Venezuela when he signed with the Yankees in 2017, but his pro career got off to a slow start. This year, he finally broke out and put up video game like numbers. He went 3 for 8 in Rookie ball before quickly being promoted to Low A Tampa. He dominated in 19 games there going .361/.446/.667 for a whopping 1.112 OPS. He had 22 RBIs and scored 17 runs in those 19 games. 11 out of his 26 hits went for extra bases, including five home runs, and he was four out of five on steal attempts. Then at High A, Hudson Valley, he hit 14 home runs in 27 games while once again sporting a OPS over 1.000. Pereira has a chance to go shooting up the prospect rankings if he can continue destroying every pitch thrown to him. It also makes him intriguing to other teams as well. If the Yankees want a guy like Matt Olson, we might have to part ways with Pereira to get him. Brandon Lockridge is another possible addition to the Yankees 40 man roster. Lockridge is a speed demon. His speed is rated as an 80/80 on Fangraphs and 75/80 on MLB.com. He struggled a little at Hudson Valley, but still got promoted to Double A Somerset where he went on a tear. He posted a wRC+ of 92 (below average) in High A but a 154 in Double A. While he improved across the board offensively, the biggest reason for his success was he was able to tap into his power more. The Yankees have a lot of players like Lockridge on their bench. Tyler Wade, Andrew Velazquez, Allen, Florial, and Locastro all have amazing speed on the basepaths. However, if Lockridge can replicate the success he had offensively in Double A, he might have a higher ceiling then all of them.
Outside the organization: The outfield crop might not be as deep as the Shortstop or Starting pitching crop, but there are still some good options. Starling and Ketel Marte (no relation) could both be available. Starling is a free agency, and Ketel could be traded if the rebuilding Diamondbacks get a good deal. Both of them are contact oriented and athletic, areas Brian Cashman hinted he wanted to get better. However, both of them are subpar defensively in Center, another area Cashman wants to improve. At least Ketel is an average to above average defensive middle infielder having originally come up as a shortstop. If they do get Ketel, I imagine he’d be used as a super utility guy, kind of like the Dodgers use Chris Taylor (also a free agent). Ketel is also underpaid and on the books for two more years, so a deal wouldn’t come cheap. Taylor would be another good Center Field/super utility option. He’s fast, plays solid defense, and made his first all star appearance this year. He slumped late in the regular season but provided some big playoff moments, including a walk-off home run in the Wild Card Game, and a three home run performance as the Dodgers faced elimination in Game 5 against the Braves in the NLCS. The most talented option might be Byron Buxton. Buxton is a five tool Center Fielder on the last year of his contract, however he has a long injury history and they would have to sign him to an extension. They have more than an estimated $100 million dollars coming off their payroll so it wouldn’t be much of a problem. There are also plenty of Lefty bats available if the Yankees want to balance their lineup that way in Kyle Schwarber (who can also play first), Eddie Rosario, and Joc Pederson, but doing this would make the Yankees double down on Judge or Gallo in Center Field. Judge held his own out there, but he’s much better in Right Field.
That’s it for the Yankees outfield as well as my series of position breakdowns. Next week, I’ll post my grand, off-season plan. May the force be with you.