Where Do They Go From Here
The Rule 5 deadline has passed and the first flurry of off-season moves have been made. Some of them were expected. Some were mildly surprising. But what do we do next?
First let’s recap the moves they made so far. Last week, they resigned Joely Rodriguez to a 1 year $2 million deal. Then last night, they got busy. The first move they made was trading Donny Sands and Nick Nelson for Phillies prospects, TJ Rumfield and Joel Valdez. Rumfield, a first baseman, was drafted in the 12th round in this years draft. He showed elite plate discipline in his brief professional career walking 20% of the time, but he didn’t show a lot of power. He only had one extra base hit. Joel Valdez, who was an international signing in 2018, dominated in the Dominican Summer League this year. They are not on the 40 man roster and will start in the lower levels of the minors.
With the two roster spots they had available, they added Oswaldo Cabrera and Everson Pereira. Then they designated Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier, and Rougned Odor for assignment so they could add pitchers Stephen Ridings, Ron Marinaccio, and JP Sears.
I was surprised by the Sands trade. I assumed when he was added to the 40 man that he’d be on the roster all off-season. Most of the guys added to the 40 man were seen as candidates from the beginning. I had Cabrera, Pereira, and Ridings as additions in my Free Agency Preview . I didn’t have Marinaccio, but I did list him as a potential option in my post about the bullpen. Sears is the one that came as somewhat of a surprise. Sears made 25 appearances (18 starts) between Double A Somerset and Triple A Scranton. He posted a 3.46 combined ERA and struck out 136 batters in 104 innings. While he started the majority of his games, I think he’s more likely to pitch out of the bullpen in the majors. The Yankees have higher rated prospects who are all expected to start the year in Triple A. At 5’11, he’s also on the small side for a pitcher.
The players designated for assignment raised some eyebrows. Clint Frazier being designated for assignment was expected, but Odor and Wade being removed from the roster before Miguel Andujar had some people up in arms. Andujar doesn’t really have a defensive position and hasn’t been productive offensively since 2018. Wade had his best offensive season (which isn’t saying much), but he showed value as a backup infielder/pinch runner. I don’t think Andujar will be on the roster much longer. The non-tender deadline for arbitration eligible players is December 2nd and he’s an obvious choice to be non-tender. The Yankees are also left with very little offensive depth. Right now, they have one backup catcher, three backup infielders (one first baseman), and three backup outfielders (one who hasn’t even reached Double A).
So where do they go from here? The next big day is the non-tender deadline, which falls December 2nd. As I said earlier, Andujar is an obvious non-tender candidate. Domingo German is another one. Brian Cashman said to reporters during the Covenant House charity event where he slept outside that they’re in the market for pitching. They were in contention for Justin Verlander before he decided to resign with the Astros and the odds are they will add another one through trade or free agency. Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, and Jordan Montgomery are their top 3 right now. If they add another one, that will be four plus Jameson Taillon, who might miss the start of the season while recovering from ankle surgery. The way things stand now, German would likely have to battle for the fifth spot in Spring Training with Nestor Cortes and Luis Gil. On top of that, the bullpen only has eight spots and most of them seem locked in. German’s arbitration estimate is $2 million and I can’t them paying a guy who might not be in the majors all year that much money.
That would give us two roster spots. Shortstop continues to be the Yankees top priority and it’s a deep class. There were reports the Yankees would consider a stopgap, but I still think they’ll end up splurging for one of the top guys. Jon Heyman reported that they offer Justin Verlander a one year $25 million deal. That’s a lot for a pitcher coming off of Tommy John so it shows a willingness to spend on Cashman’s part. Heyman also reported earlier this week that while the Rangers have met with Corey Seager, that the Dodgers and Yankees are the favorites. There’s also been a lot reported about Correa not seeing $300 million offers from anybody. If that’s the case, there’s a good chance the Yankees get one.
After shortstop, adding another pitcher will be the next item on the Yankees checklist whether it’s through free agency or trade. Luis Castillo, who they been interested in in the past, was believed to be on the market, but reports surfaced recently that the Reds are unlikely to deal him. There’s a chance that the Yankees could also snag a pitcher from Oakland in a combo deal for Matt Olson. While there was a lot of noise about the Yankees possibly acquiring Olson, nothing materializing. Jack Curry, did however confirm that Cashman has talked to the A’s. Heyman reported that right now, the A’s are asking for the moon. It’s a long off-season. As the off-season goes on, the price is likely to drop. However, getting a pitcher on top of trading for Olson would be very expensive. I think free agencies the path they’ll go. Jon Gray is a guy I think the Yankees will interested in. He has a career ERA of 4.59, but he also has a FIP of 3.91, ERA+ of 104, and 9.2 K/9 which indicates a move away from Coors would help his career. The Yankees drafted him in 2011, but he choose to transfer to the University of Oklahoma.
The next position the Yankees will have to figure out is First Base. The two most likely scenarios are trading for Olson or resigning Rizzo. They have talked to Freddie Freeman, but I highly doubt he leaves the Braves. Like I said earlier, right now, the A’s are in shoot for the moon mode, but the Yankees still have what it takes to get the deal done. The package will likely start with Luke Voit, Oswald Peraza, and a pitching prospect. We have several good pitching prospects on our 40 man roster. If the A’s really are shooting for the moon, they’ll probably have to include another prospect which could be… just about anybody. An Olson trade would likely free up 2, maybe even three roster spots. As a noted earlier, they could try to pick up a pitcher too in the deal, but that would be even more expensive. If they can’t reach a deal for Olson, they’ll probably just resign Rizzo to a short term deal and trade Voit for prospects.
The next step is adding depth on offense. Because of their lack of depth, I think they keep Urshela and Torres while having DJ split time between second and third. They don’t have a lot of depth at outfield or catcher either. Right now, Estevan Florial would be our fourth outfielder behind Aaron Hicks. While Florial’s produced in his short time in the majors, his overall Triple A numbers were subpar as he slashed .218/.315/.404 (wRC+ 93). He did however finish strong. Either way, with Hicks’s injury history, they’ll need another option. At minimum, I think they’ll bring back Brett Gardner, but like they did last year, it will wait until later in the winter. The perfect guy to fill out the roster would be Chris Taylor. The speedy Taylor can play almost anywhere. The only positions he hasn’t played in his career are first base, catcher, and pitcher. In addition to his speed and defensive versatility, he’s also a consistent producer on offense who made his first all star game this year.
There are more ways we can pick up depth pieces like waivers or minor trades. I was somewhat surprised we only went with two catchers on our current roster. To me, that indicates they’re comfortable with Gary Sanchez and Kyle Higashioka. I have mixed opinions on Sanchez. While I defended him longer than most have, he’s been subpar at bat the last two seasons and his defense isn’t great either. That being said, the free agent catching market isn’t great. The trade market is also questionable. I can’t see the Pirates trading Jacob Stallings. He’s the only catcher on their 40 man right now so you’d probably have to give them a catcher on your 40 man to make a deal work. Mitch Garver and Carson Kelly are guys who could be available through trade, but there’s no guarantee either of them gets dealt. As far as minor moves, if they want to bring in a third catcher, they could always deal a guy like Albert Abreu, who’s out of options and might not make the opening day roster. But at this point, hoping the Hitting Coach can fix Gary and get the type of production he had in 2019, might be the best/most realistic options.
That’s how I see the rest of the off-season playing out. I think the Yankees lineup will look something like this come opening day:
C: Sanchez
1B: Olson
2B: Torres/DJ/CT
3B: Urshela/DJ/CT
SS: Correa or Seager
LF: Gallo
CF: Hicks/Taylor
RF: Judge
DH: Stanton
SP:
Cole
Severin
Montgomery
Gray
Nestor/Gil (Taillon on IL)
Bullpen:
Chapman
Loaisiga
Holmes
Peralta
Green
King
Luetge
Rodriguez
That being said, it’s a long off-season and it doesn’t take a lot for things to change. May the force be with you.