Real Concerns, Real Optimism, and Real Expectations
My Outlook on the moves the Yankees made post lockout
After the end of the outlook and a week plus of transactions, the dust has settled, and everybody’s roster seems to be set. I could have written this a while ago, but there were/are still some possibilities of trades and I need to clear my head a bit. It was disappointing not to see the Yankees get some big names, or at least not the big names we wanted, but they still improved and are in a good position.
Real Concerns: Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner talked a bit game at the beginning of the off-season. They acknowledge the holes on the roster and hinted that they would spend big. They didn’t. Waiting until after the lockout to spend made sense because they’d know what the luxury tax is, however, even after the new CBA was ratified, they held off from the big names. Buster Olney did a story about Freddie Freeman’s free agency and how despite being a great fit, Cashman told him, they didn’t have the room in their budget. Hal clearly doesn’t have the same win at all costs attitude his Dad, or even some of the other owners, have. The Dodgers didn’t need to sign Freddie Freeman. They have All Star, Max Muncy, and former MVP, Cody Bellinger, who can fill the position. But they went and got Freeman because he increases their odds of winning the World Series. Same applies to the Yankees crosstown rival Mets pursuit of Max Scherzer. For the money they used to sign Scherzer, they could have signed Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon and still have the top rotation in baseball. However, Steve Cohen chose to put two of the best pitchers of their generation in the same rotation. Hal hasn’t matched the aggressiveness the of the Dodgers and Mets on the opening market. Or even the Twins aggressiveness for that matter. The Yankees had some pressing needs and did not go for the top names instead letting teams with less pressing needs swoop in. Cashman isn’t blame free. He’s the one who decides how to spend the money. He added a net $25 million to the payroll after the lockout. Since trading Luke Voit, who’s making $5.4 million, seemed like a forgone conclusion before the let’s say the Yankees had $30 million to spend. They could have easily signed Freeman. Signing Freeman would have taken away the sting of going with a defensive stopgap option like Andrelton Simmons or Isiah Kiner-Falefa. They also could have parted with some prospects (particular at middle infield where they have a lot of depth) and got Matt Olson who was cheaper than Freeman.
Real optimism: Just because we missed out on the big names like Carlos Correa, Freeman, and Olson, it doesn’t mean the Yankees didn’t get better. They brought back Anthony Rizzo, who had a positive impact after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline. A full season of Rizzo and other deadline acquisitions like Joey Gallo, Clay Holmes, and Joely Rodriguez, plus having a full season from Luis Severino after his return from injury, should automatically improve the Yankees. After the deadline, the Yankees went 39-22, which is well over 100-win pace. While 100 wins seems to high, they should still be better than the 92. After all, Gallo didn’t play up to his abilities after the deadline. Even the few changes the Yankees made improved the team. Josh Donaldson is an upgrade from Gio Urshela at Third Base. After bursting onto the scene in 2019 hitting .314 and posting a wRC+ of 132. After seemingly proving he wasn’t a fluke in 2020, regressed in 2021. His batting average dropped to .267 and his strike rate also rose and his ISO Power and walk rate dropped. He also regressed defensively in 2021. After posting 5 DRS in 2020 and being nominated for a gold glove, he had -4 DRS in 2021. While Donaldson may be 36, he’s been one of the best Third Baseman in baseball for a good part of the last decade. The three-time all-star and the 2015 AL MVP, is the blueprint for a modern Third Baseman because of three attributes, his power, his plate discipline, and his defense. Since becoming an everyday Third Baseman in 2013, Donaldson has averaged 27 home runs a year and 35 per 162 games, walked 12.5% of the time, and posted 29 DRS. He averages 6 WAR per 162. The average Hall of Fame Third Baseman average 5.1 per 162. He probably won’t make it to Cooperstown because he had a late start to his career, not becoming a regular until 27 and shortened seasons because of the injuries and the pandemic. Last year, he hit 26 home runs in 135 games, a 124 wRC+, and posted 1 DRS showing he has plenty left in the tank. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who was acquired in the same trade as Donaldson, has a lot of the qualities that many have thought the Yankees missed these last few years. The speedy Kiner-Falefa, who’s already earned the affectionate nickname IKF, stole 20 bases last year and is a well above average defensive player at both shortstop and third base, where he won a Gold Glove in 2020. While he only hit .271, he only struck out 13.3% of the time, which is well below average. He also doesn’t have much pop, which is why he posted an 85 wRC+. However, it the off-season, he worked with the same hitting coach who works with Justin Turner. It’s already seemed to have paid dividends for IKF, as he’s been hitting a lot of line drives in Spring Training so far. The infield of Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, IKF, and Donaldson gives the Yankees flexibility and LeMahieu, who will take on more of a utility role, is by far a better bench option than Rougned Odor or Tyler Wade. Not only have the Yankees improved from a team that won 92 games, but everybody except for Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton had down years. If LeMahieu, Torres, and Hicks can replicate their productivity before 2021, or at least come close, the Yankees offense will once again be feared. Torres is unlikely to ever hit 38 home runs again, but if he can hit close to 20 and LeMahieu can get back to hitting .300, I’m sure the Yankees will sign up for that. They do still have holes. You can never have too much pitching and the Yankees are relying on Ben Rortvedt and Kyle Higashioka behind the plate. Some would say they need more outfield depth, but Aaron Boone said he plans on used Stanton two or three times a week in the outfield, effectively making him the fourth outfielder. They also didn’t give up any of their top prospects in trade this off-season and are an estimated $8-11 million below the second luxury tax threshold, giving them ammo to add pieces at the deadline if needed. They also have highly rated prospects, like Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera, who should contribute at some point in the season.
Real Expectations: While I do think the Yankees will improve their record and make the playoffs, I don’t think they’re the favorite in the AL East. Sure, Boston and Tampa will be tough. However, Toronto is the team I have winning the AL East. They did lose Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien, who both had career years, but they replaced them with Matt Chapman and Kevin Gausman, their young core is a year older, and Toronto strict vaccine mandate gives them a distinct home field advantage. While the team who wins the most games usually enters the post-season the favorite, the Braves and 2019 Nationals have shown that a team can get hot at the right time and unexpectedly win the whole thing. While the Yankees aren’t the favorites at the moment, a championship is not out of the question.