Two years ago, the Yankees looked like what Brian Cashman called, “a fully loaded Death Star.” After losing in six games to the Astros that year, they brought in Gerrit Cole hoping he would be the difference. Cole’s been worth the money they paid him, but the rest of the team has regressed and underperformed leading to an embarrassing Wild Card Game loss to our arch rivals, the Boston Red Sox. Big changes are needed to keep up with not only Boston, but a Tampa Bay Rays team that won 100 games, and a young, upcoming Blue Jays team led by MVP candidate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Changes have already been made. Hitting Coaches Marcus Thames and P.J Pilittere, as well as Third Base Coach, Phil Nevin, have already been fired and Bench Coach, Carlos Mendoza, could be next. Brendan Kuty from nj.com, reported that the Yankees could bring in coaches who are a little more intense than Manager, Aaron Boone, creating a good cop/bad cop dynamic in the clubhouse. Everybody from Yankees management, to experts, to Tony from Long Island calling into WFAN has their opinions on how to rebuild the Death Star and make the Yankees the favorites to win their 28th championship in 2022. I’m going to share mine, but first I’m going to break down the roster. Who’s coming back, who’s heading out the door, and who’s fate will we find out on the next episode of Dragon Ball-Z. I’ll be starting with the starting pitching.
For once, our starting pitching is actually a strength and not a weakness. They were Top 10th in Major League Baseball in ERA, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), 4th in K/9 innings, 6th in WAR, and 7th in SIERA (Skill Interactive Earned Run Average). Pitching Coach Matt Blake was a big part of their success this year. He helped Jordan Montgomery and Nestor Cortes have breakout seasons and Gerrit Cole adjust to pitching without “sticky stuff”.
Will Return: If the season started today, the Yankees would have a solid rotation with Cole as the ace, Luis Severino would be the second starter in his first full season back from Tommy John, followed by Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery was highly underrated this year. He missed qualifying for the ERA title by 4.2 innings, but would have finished 8th in ballpark adjusted ERA+, and 9th in ERA and FIP. He was also Top 10 in the American League in WAR before his disastrous final start of the season against Tampa. The rotation would be rounded out by Jameson Taillon and Nestor Cortes. Taillon struggled in the first half with a 4.90 ERA and 4.66 FIP, but was much better in the second half with a 3.50 ERA and 4.13 FIP. The Yankees are hoping that now that he’s a full year removed from Tommy John, has had plenty of time to adjust to New York, and has another year to work with Matt Blake, that he’ll pick up in 2022 where he left off in the second half. Nestor Cortes came out of nowhere and took the 5th starter slot with a 2.90 ERA. While he doesn’t throw hard like a lot of topline starters do, but he struck out 10 batters per nine innings and generated a lot of weak contact by keeping hitters off balance with his change in arm slots and deceptive delivery. His emergence and unique delivery, along with his Charlie Chaplin mustache and pet turtle, Bronxie, made him an instant fan favorite in New York. While he may seem like an Aaron Small or Jeremy Lin type flash in the pan to some, his underlying metrics suggest that his performance wasn’t a fluke.
Most likely back: The Yankees have several top pitching prospects on their 40 man roster. Most of them will be back, but there’s always the chance that they make a blockbuster trade or use them to help dump contracts which is I why they aren’t in the “will return” category. The best of those prospects is Luis Gil, who’s ranked in the Top 100 by several publications. In six starts with the Yankees, he had a 3.07 ERA in 29.1 innings and struck out 38. However, his issue, like a lot of young pitchers, is control. He walked 19 batters in his 29.1 innings in the majors and 45 in his 79.1 innings between Double A Somerset and Triple A Scranton. Clarke Schmidt is another intriguing prospect. His stock took a bit of a hit because he missed time with injury and struggled in his only two big league outings, but he struck out 46 batters in 38 minor league innings and posted a 2.37 ERA. The injury concerns aren’t new, he had Tommy John right before being drafted by the Yankees in 2017 and Schmidt’s only pitched 162.2 professional innings since his minor league debut in 2018 due to injuries and the pandemic. His good minor league numbers and his high ground ball rate still have the Yankees believing he could be in the rotation someday. But if he can’t build up his workload soon, he might end up being stuck in the bullpen down the road. Speaking of prospects who’s stocks have taken a hit, Deivi Garica’s stock as taken a nosedive. The former Top 100 prospect, had his deliver tinkered with to avoid future injury and the results were not good. Garcia had a 6.48 ERA in two starts with the Yankees and was even worse in the minors with a 6.85 ERA and a WHIP of nearly two in Scranton. With a year to adjust to his delivery, hopefully he’ll be better next year. A move to the bullpen could also potentially help, but his long term value is very questionable. The Yankees have two more highly rated prospects on their 40 man in Luis Medina and Yoendrys Gomez that have yet to make their major league debuts. Medina, arguably has the highest ceiling of any Yankees pitching prospect. With a 100 MPH fastball, Medina had a combined 3.39 ERA between High A Hudson Valley and Double A while striking out 133 batters in 106.1 innings and a groundball rate of 50%. He was in consideration for a late season promotion to Scranton, but the Yankees decided it would be better for his development to play winter ball in the Dominican Republic. Like Gil, his biggest weakness is control as he walked 60 batters this year. If he fixes his control issues, he has the chance to be a high end starter, but if not, his electric fastball will make him a potential high leverage reliever. Gomez is far from the majors. He struck out 29 and walked nine in 23.2 innings at Low A Tampa. His season was cut short by a positive COVID test and injuries. Despite his lack of experience, he’s still ranked in the Top 10 in the organization on most prospect lists.
Might not be back: Domingo German. German returned after being suspended for the entire 2020 season for the domestic violence. He took a step back from his breakout 2019 season with a 4.58 ERA, 4.31 FIP, and just under 9 k/9 innings. His best performance came on July 25th, against Boston where he carried a no-hitter into the 8th and struck out 10. He made one more start and then went on the IL. He came back and made one appearance out of the bullpen during the last series of the season. The way he was used out of the bullpen after being activated suggested that he is one of the lowest men on the totem pole and because he’s not guaranteed to make the rotation, he could easily be on the chopping block. In addition to his so-so performance on the mound, he has off-field issues and hinted on Instagram that he isn’t happy more than once. He’s also eligible for arbitration for the first time. He’s estimated to make $2.1 million dollar which is a lot of money for a guy not guaranteed to make the opening day roster. He does however have minor league options so they could stash him as a depth option.
Probably Gone: Corey Kluber. The former 2 time Cy Young winner was worth the gamble, but unfortunately it didn’t pay off. His numbers were solid (3.83 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 9.2 K/9), but he only made 16 starts pitching 80 innings and spent three months on the IL. At this point in his career, you can’t rely on him to stay healthy for a full season. He might be good as a back end of the rotation guy or even in a high leverage, multi-inning bullpen role, but not in New York.
Potential 40 Man Prospect Additions: Every year, teams are forced to protect some of their top prospects by adding them to the 40 man roster or risk losing them during the Rule 5 draft. One candidate for promotion to the 40 man is Randy Vasquez. Before he was almost traded for Joey Gallo and John King, Vasquez wasn’t a guy a lot of Yankees fans knew much about. But the Yankees had concerns about King’s shoulder, they opted to trade for Joely Rodriguez instead, they took Vasquez out of the deal, and the rest is history. The day after almost being shipped to Texas, he made his second start at Hudson Valley going 5.2 innings, allowing two runs, and striking out nine. Then he caught fire. In his next four starts, he allowed one run in 24.2 innings while striking out 36 earning a promotion to Somerset. In addition to striking guys out, he had the third highest groundball rate in the organization at 56.5 %. Trading for groundball pitchers like Rodriguez, Wandy Peralta, and Clay Holmes, as well as the emergence of groundball pitchers like Jonathan Loaisiga and Michael King, was key to the Yankees late season bullpen resurgence so producing groundballs is a good attribute for a young pitcher in the Yankees organization to have.
Possible Free Agent Additions: While they do have a solid rotation, the Yankees should still bring in another starter. This year’s free agent starting pitching class is deep, every starter on the Yankees ended up on the IL this year, and you need depth to overcome injuries. There are 4 future hall of famers at the tale end of their careers in Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke on the market. None of them, with the exception of Scherzer and maybe Kershaw are probably worth more than a one year deal. Verlander is coming back from Tommy John, Greinke looks like he’s on his last legs, and Kershaw won’t pitch in the playoffs because of an elbow injury. Scherzer is still at the top of his game, but he’ll likely stay in LA. There are also several good options that are still in their primes. Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, and AL Cy Young favorite Robbie Ray are some of the top free agent pitchers. Gausman is probably the best option. Rodon has a history of injuries and Robbie Ray has had a history of walks in the past despite dominating this season. Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard from their crosstown rival Mets are also available. The Mets will most likely resign at least one though. Both come with question marks however. Syndergaard missed all of last year and almost all of this year after having Tommy John. Stroman has a highly groundball rate and had a 3.02 ERA this year, but probably wouldn’t be a good fit for the Yankees because his hobbies include blocking Yankee fans for climbing into his mentions and beefing with beat reporters on Twitter. The next tier of free agent pitchers includes guys like Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Michael Pineda. Cobb and Wood fit the profile of high groundball pitchers who are also capable of striking out more than a batter per inning. Jon Gray has a career ERA of 4.59 pitching at the very hitter friendly Coors Field. However, his career FIP is 3.91 and his career K/9 innings is 9.2 which indicates that a move away from Coors Field could help his career. Like Cobb and Wood, he is also an effective groundball pitcher. DeSclafani had a career year in San Francisco after a down pandemic season his last year in Cincinnati. Eduardo Rodriguez return from a Covid related heart condition and pitched to a 4.74 ERA. However, he struck out 10.6 per nine innings, posted a 3.32 FIP, and 3.64 SIERA which are indications that he could be a good bounce back candidate next year. Signing Rodriguez would also weaken Boston. Pineda was inconsistent during his first tenure in The Bronx but he has gotten better. One last name the Yankees might have interest in is Andrew Heaney. Andrew Heaney, well if you followed the Yankees this year, you already know who he is and probably don’t want to go down that road again. Or at least I don’t.
That’s all you need to know about the Yankees starting pitching situation going into the 2022 season. In the next article, I’ll be breaking down our bullpen. May the force be with you all.