Normally, I write about the Yankees, but today, I’ve decided to release my mock Hall of Fame ballot. Obviously, I don’t actually have a vote, but if I did, I’d have to submit by December 31st so the votes can be counted in time for the announcement on January 25th, 2022. Back in the day, people would vote for guys who had 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, or just generally made an impression on them. There’s also the Veteran’s Committee that votes their peers who are no longer eligible. Nowadays, with the increased use of advanced stats and other Hall of Fame metrics that you can find on sites like Baseball Reference, that make it easier to evaluate players on the ballot to guys that are already in the Hall of Fame. Black and Gray Ink are metrics that compare the amount of times a player either led or finished top 10 in the league in a category, Hall of Fame Monitor and Standards judge players by counting stats and career milestones., and JAWS compares players by both their career and peak WARs. After looking at that information, I made my ballot.
The PEDS guys: Several of the best players on the ballot were tied to PEDS through The Mitchell Report, the failed survey test, or got caught and suspended. These players include Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, David Ortiz, Andy Pettitte, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa. The things I took into account when judging these players were:
1. Would this player have likely be a Hall of Famer with or without PEDS?
Did they test positive after a system was put in place to punish players?
Using these two questions, I quickly eliminated Andy Pettitte. Even if he hadn’t done PEDS, he’d be more of a borderline Hall of Famer. If there were less than 10 guys (the maximum number of players you can vote for) on the ballot, I might have included him, but he’s not a guy I feel I absolutely have to vote for. Pettitte was a Yankee legend, he had an amazing postseason track record going 19-11 with a 3.81 ERA, and he won 256 games over the course of his career. He falls short in WAR when it comes to the average HOF pitcher. He also only made three all-star games and didn’t make a lot of appearances on the league leader boards. He only finished Top 10 in ERA three times, and Top 10 in strikeouts four times.
The next guys I eliminated were A-Rod and Manny because of their suspensions for the Biogensis Scandal, and two positive tests respectively. I do think A-Rod still would have been a Hall of Fame caliber player without PEDS but they were already outlawed when he got involved in the Biogensis Scandal. Manny’s repeated steroid use shows that he continued to cheat after he got caught and makes it hard to evaluate how much the PEDS use helped him.
Two players on the ballot were definitely on their way to being first ballot Hall of Famers before taking steroids, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Bonds and Clemens are in their last years on the ballot and most likely won’t make it, but they should be Hall of Famers. Bonds was believed to have started using steroids after seeing Sosa and Mark Mcguire’s home run chase in 1998. At that point in his career, Bonds had 1,917 hits, 411 home runs, three MVPS, eight Gold Gloves and all-star game appearances, and posted a WAR of 99.9. Clemens supposedly started using PEDS after leaving the Boston Red Sox and signing with the Toronto Blue Jays. In his 13 years Red Sox career, he went 192-111 with a 3.06 ERA, 2,590 strikeouts, three Cy Youngs, an MVP, and 80.8 WAR. Not only were they on their way to being first ballot Hall of Famers before using steroids, but they probably could have retired at that point and still made the Hall of Fame.
The other three candidates are more complicated. Sosa, Big Papi, and Sheffield all hit over 500 home runs in their careers. Originally, I wasn’t going to any of them, but Big Papi is polling at 81.3% and has a good chance to be inducted. I held off on Big Papi because I didn’t think it was fair for him to make the Hall of Fame before guys like Bonds and Clemens who were much better players, but I did decide to include Sosa and Sheffield. Sosa is in his last year and is unlikely to make the Hall of Fame, but if Papi gets in and the writers decide to let everybody who used PEDS in, Sheffield has a chance down the road. Sheffield’s candidacy does still have some flaws, however. Has remarkable of a hitter as he was, he’s also one of the worst defensive players of all time.
So now that I’ve included 4 accused PEDS users, on to the rest of the ballot.
Scott Rolen: Scott Rolen is the best clean player on the ballot. He debuted on the ballot at 10.2% in 2018. With help from a decluttered ballot and the increasing importance/usage of advance stats by Hall of Fame voters, he jumped to 52.9% in his fourth year on the ballot this year. His peak WAR, career WAR, and JAWS score are all above the average Hall of Fame Third Baseman. He also made seven all-star games and won eight Gold Gloves. He may not get in this year, but next year he should have a good shot.
Billy Wagner: There aren’t a lot of relievers in the Hall of Fame, but I do think Billy Wagner deserves to be one. Out of all pitchers who have thrown more than 800 innings, Wagner has the lowest batting average against, highest strikeout rate and K/9, the second lowest ERA and ERA+, and third FIP. He is sixth all-time in saves behind three Hall of Famers (Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith) as well as Francisco Rodriguez, who’s not yet eligible, and John Franco, who made over 250 more appearances than Wagner. Wagner could have easily passed Rodriguez and Franco had he not gotten Tommy John Surgery in 2008 that probably played a role in his decision to retire in 2010, despite having one of the best seasons of his career.
Todd Helton: Helton, like Rolen, started slow, but his candidacy has taken off in recent years. A big obstacle for him was the “Coors Effect”. It’s the same obstacle that kept his long-time teammate Larry Walker out of the Hall of Fame until his 10th and final time on the ballot. Helton’s counting stats were likely padded by Coors, but his seven-year peak WAR and JAWS lineup with the average Hall of Famer which indicates he would have been a star anywhere. He was also a solid base runner and defensive First Baseman, winning three Gold Gloves. The high altitude doesn’t affect your defense and base running ability. His best season was 2000 when he won the slash line Triple Crown (leading the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage) and also led the league in hits, doubles, RBIs, and WAR. Unfortunately for him, the Rockies only finished 4th so he only finished fifth in MVP voting even though he deserved it.
Andruw Jones: From his first full season in 1997 to 2006, Andruw Jones always at the top of the list of best Center Fielders in baseball. He hit 337 home runs and won nine straight Gold Glove Awards (and won his 10th straight in 2007). His defensive metrics matched what the voters saw with their eyes as he has the greatest defensive WAR of any Center Field in the history of baseball. Yes, better than even the great Willie Mays. So why has a guy who was an elite Center Field on a perennial World Series contender for a decade never received more than 33.9% off the Hall of Fame vote? The simple answer is after his amazing run from 1997-2006, he fell off a cliff. After the 2006 season, he had a career rWAR of 58 and an fWAR of 61. After 2006, he posted a 4.7 rWAR and 6 fWAR the rest of his career. He was a disappointment in LA after signing a big contract and after he was released by the Dodgers, he bounced around a few more years as a right-handed platoon outfielder and part time DH for the Rangers, White Sox, and Yankees. Some voters have chosen to hold his rapid and steep decline against him. However, I believe Jones was too good for too long not to be in the Hall of Fame.
Jeff Kent: Has somebody who takes some stock in analytics, my inclusion of Jeff Kent might seem strange. Sure, he didn’t have blazing speed and was a below average, was in the Hall of Fame Monitor and Standards Department, he passes with flying colors. He leads all Second Baseman in home runs and posted a 123 wRC+ for his career.
Bobby Abreu: Bobby Abreu is more of a borderline candidate, but I put him on my ballot when he first became in candidate and decided to keep him on because I’ve had room. The one Hall of Fame metric where he passes the bar is Hall of Fame Standards. However, his Peak WAR does compare favorably to Hall of Fame contemporaries like Tony Gwynn, Vladimir Guerrero, and Dave Winfield. He was underrated for a lot of his career only making two all-star appearances and winning one Gold Glove. Why? First of all, when Abreu played, analytics had just started to be used more frequently. While he was a five-tool player who could hit for average, steal bases, hit for decent power, walk a good amount, and field, he didn’t necessarily make a lot of highlight reels. He only hit 30 home runs twice and while he batted .300 several times, a lot of his value at the plate came from walks and doubles which don’t sell tickets despite being valuable tools. He also wasn’t in the spotlight a lot in October. He made his post-season debut as a 23-year-old rookie for the Houston Astros and went 0-3 as a pinch hitter. He didn’t get another chance at a playoff baseball until 2006, when he was traded to the Yankees at the deadline. He didn’t see the second round of the playoffs until 2009 as a 35-year-old on the Angels. However, at that point, he had already started to decline and went 4-25 in the Angels loss to the Yankees.
That’s my 10. Here are some notable exclusions.
The “Character Clause”: “voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” That’s the Hall of Fame’s character clause. It’s what many have used to justify snubbing PEDS users and other bad characters from the Hall of Fame. Nobody’s been hit harder by the character clause this year than Omar Vizquel. 65 ballots have been made public by Hall of Fame voters so far and only seven have voted for Vizquel while a whopping 22 have dropped him. Vizquel is being investigated by Major League Baseball for both domestic violence and the alleged sexual harassment of an autistic batboy while he was the manager of the Birmingham Black Barons. I wasn’t really a supporter of his candidacy even before the allegations came out. He’s ninth all time in Defensive WAR (Baseball Reference) and won 11 Gold Gloves, but he was an anemic hitter for most of his career posting an 83 wRC+ for his career. Sure, he 2,877 hits during his career, but that’s more because he stuck around 24 years.
The other person whose Hall of Fame hopes have taken a hit because of the character clause is Curt Schilling. Unlike Vizquel, Schilling’s performance on the field is well deserving of being a Hall of Famer. His conduct off the field since retiring by tweeting Islamophobic and transphobic memes, tweeted a picture of a Trump supporter wearing a shirt that said, “rope, tree, journalist.” While he is an ignorant jerk among other things, I didn’t think it was enough to disqualify him because several Old Timers like Ty Cobb, Cap Anson, Tris Speaker, and other had problematic views and you can’t remove them from the Hall of Fame. My opinion on whether or not Schilling should be a Hall of Famer changed last year when he tweeted his support for the January 6th Insurrectionists at the Capitol. Like I said earlier, problematic views haven’t disqualified players from being in the Hall of Fame in the past, but to my knowledge, I don’t think any other Hall of Famers are pro-Storm the Capitol and overthrow the government. Schilling also threw a fit last year and asked to be removed from the ballot after coming up just short of election saying that he wanted to take his chances with the Veteran’s Committee and calling it a “political witchhunt.” What he doesn’t understand is it’s his actions and words not his politics that have kept him out of the Hall of Fame. If people voted based on political views, I’d imagine the mostly Liberal voting base would be handing in a lot of blank ballots considering the majority of players lean Conservative.
Coming Up Short: In addition to the guys I’ve already discussed and/or voted for, nine guys, most of them first timers, have received votes. Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Torii Hunter, Tim Lincecum, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, AJ Pierzynski, Jimmy Rollins, and Mark Teixeira. Buehrle, Hudson, and Hunter were on the ballot last year most of them barely squeaking by. Buehrle and Hudson are pretty much similar to Andy Pettitte with the different being Pettitte’s post-season resume. Hunter fell short by all the Hall of Fame Statistics Baseball Reference has listed on their website. More of a Hall of Very Gooder. Lincecum is a sad story. He had a four year stretch where he was an elite pitcher before he fell off the cliff mostly due to the strain of a heavy workload and a violent delivery. Nathan and Papelbon are both long-time closers. Nathan probably has a better case than Papelbon, but they’re both a peg below Wagner making them unlikely to get the five percent needed to make the ballot again next year. The biggest things hurting Joe Nathan were his late start (he didn’t become a full-time reliever until he was 28) and his two Tommy John surgeries late in his career. Surprisingly, AJ Pierzynski scored over 100 on the Hall of Fame monitor, which classifies him as a likely Hall of Famer. However, when you dig deeper into how it’s calculated, you can see that most of it is because of his longevity at the Catchers position. With five out of the first 65 votes, Rollins seems to be the most likely first timer not named Ortiz or Rodriguez to make a second ballot. Rollins also scored over 100 on the Hall of Fame Monitor because he played on a lot of good teams and scored a lot of runs because he was fast and hit at the top of a good lineup. However, he was only posted a 95 wRC+ for his career. Even in his MVP season in 2007, he was only a 119 wRC+ hitter. Teixeira is the one I believe is most deserving of a second shot. However, with only one vote so far, it seems unlikely. Teixeira’s career got off to a strong start. In his first nine years in the Majors, he seemed like he could be on his way to the Hall of Fame. He hit 314 home runs, won four Gold Gloves, and posted a 44.1 rWAR and a 132 OPS+. However, after the 2011 season, he never played more than 125 games and only posted more than one win above replacement in two out of five seasons. He also retired at 36. Had he stayed healthy, not only would he have been more productive, but he might have stayed around after his contract with the Yankees expired in 2016 instead of retiring.
Those are my thoughts on the ballot and how I would vote if I had one. Have a Happy and Safe New Year.