Fully Loaded Death Star Lockout Edition
On December 2nd, the owners decided to lockout the players after not reaching an agreement on a new CBA. Until a new CBA is agreed on, no moves will be made outside of an occasional minor league contract being signed. But once a CBA is reached, there is likely to be a mad dash to sign free agents. Who will the Yankees get? I will talk about what moves need to be made where and breakdown a few scenarios.
Shortstop:
Shortstop remains the Yankees biggest need. While Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Javier Baez have come of the board, Carlos Correa and Trevor Story are still on the market. Correa was the best shortstop in baseball last year and remains the best option, but Story would also help provide speed and defense as well as power. There are rumors that the Yankees could pass on them and sign a “stop gap” like Andrelton Simmons, or trade for Isaiah Kiner-Falefa. I haven’t bought into the reports the Yankees are looking stop gap. They offered Justin Verlander $25 million, made an offer to Semien for six years, and are in the running for Seiya Suzuki, who’s thought to be looking for a contract around $55 million for five years. I find it hard to believe that the Yankees would offer around $61 million to a 38 year old coming off Tommy John, a shortstop, and a Japanese player who hasn’t even had his first Major League at bat yet, but wouldn’t give Correa, who was the best shortstop in baseball a potential record-breaking contract. Cashman has been open about his need for a shortstop and Hal insisted Correa’s past wasn’t an issue. There is also a mystery player that Aaron Boone wants more than anybody. It could be Matt Olson or Seager, but I find it hard to believe if Boone wanted Seager that much, that they’d let Texas steal him, meaning that player is likely Correa or Story.
First Base:
First Base is the Yankees second biggest need. Luke Voit is the only First Base under contract, but he will almost certainly be traded, whether it’s part of a package for Oakland for Matt Olson, or whether the Yankees resurrect talks with the Milwaukee Brewers, who were rumored to be interested in acquiring him. Luckily, there are plenty of good ones out there in Olson, Freddie Freeman, and Anthony Rizzo. I still think the Braves are the favorite to resign Freeman, but I feel like the chance of landing one of the three are very good. One thing they can do during the lockout, is sure up their depth at First Base, which was left very thin when Chris Gittens asked for his release to sign in Japan, and Dermis Garcia, a former Top 30 prospect in their system, signed as a minor league free agent in Oakland. Roster Resource does not have a First Baseman listed at Triple A on their organizational depth chart. There are a few guys with major league experience we can sign to minor league deals during the shut down. There are two familiar names who the Yankees can bring in on minor league deals, Greg Bird and Mike Ford. Bird was a former top prospect who’s career with the Yankees was ruined at least partially due to injuries. He hasn’t played in the majors since 2019, his last year with the Yankees, but he dominated with the Rockies Triple A affiliate hitting 27 home runs and slashing .267/.362/.532/.894. The league he played in is notoriously hitter friendly, but it’s still a good sign to see him stay healthy and be productive. Ford, became a fan favorite after posting a .909 OPS in 2019, but failed to replicate his success since. He was designated for assignment by the Yankees last year and the traded to Tampa, who waived him in August before getting a chance to play for the Rays, and then ended up with the Washington Nationals, who non-tendered him and made him a free agent. Considering it’s unlikely he’ll get another major league deal, a reunion with the Yankees on a minor league deal could be in the cards. Another possible minor league free agent signing is Ronald Guzman. Guzman’s season ended after 16 at bats due to knee surgery and the emergence of Nate Lowe led to him being designated for assignment by the Rangers after the season. While he only had one hit in those 16 at bats, he did post a 105 wRC+ in limited playing time during the 2020 season so he could be worth a flyer as a minor league free agent.
Starting Pitching:
Starter Pitching is an area I was surprised the Yankees didn’t address before the lockout. They made an offer to Justin Verlander and Jon Gray and Robby Ray, who the Yankees showed trade interest in in the past, signed with the Rangers and Mariners respectively. There are still however plenty of options available. The Oakland A’s have kept their pitching trio of Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, and Frankie Montas together so far. The A’s are a good trade partner for the Yankees whether they acquire Olson, one of the pitchers, or both. There are still a few good free agent options available. They were in touch with Carlos Rodon before the lockout and when Yankees fans saw the reports from the Chicago Herald on Twitter, Rodon’s wife decided to have a little fun with the fans.
Rodon is coming off a career year and didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the White Sox which makes him one of the better targets. However, last season was Rodon’s first really good season. He had a solid season back in 2016 but made no more than 20 starts between 2017 and 2020 as a result of Shoulder injuries and Tommy John Surgery. Another name that interests me is Clayton Kershaw. Not much has been said about Kershaw. Many seem to think he’ll either stay in LA or sign with his hometown, Texas Rangers, but assuming his elbow, which forced him to miss the playoffs, is intact and doesn’t need surgery, I’d make him the same offer they made Verlander.
Outfield:
The Yankees missed out on Center Fielders like Starling Marte and Chris Taylor, but they can still add to the outfield by signing a corner outfield and moving Joey Gallo to Center. They’ve already been tied to Japanese superstar, Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki had a monster year in 2021 hitting 38 home runs and hitting .317 with an on-base percentage of .433 and a .636 slugging percentage (1.069 OPS). Another potential option in the corner would be Kyle Schwarber, who Cashman’s shown interest in in the past. Schwarber can also play first. Michael Conforto from the crosstown rival Mets is another possible option at the top of the free agent class. Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Tommy Pham, and Andrew McCutchen are available as platoon options with Aaron Hicks. One of the biggest names is one they should avoid at all costs, Nick Castellanos. There’s no doubt that Castellanos can rake, but he is one of the worst defensive players in baseball. He had -7 DRS, tying him for 8th worst in the league. Unless Giancarlo Stanton can play 150 games in the outfield, he wouldn’t be a good fit with the Yankees.
Catcher:
Before the lockout, the Yankees tried to move Gary Sanchez, but had no luck doing so. The only problem is, where can they find a replacement? Willson Contreras seems like the catcher most likely to be traded, but he’s not much of an upgrade. Neither are good defenders and despite being below league average three out of the last four years, Gary Sanchez has posted a wRC+ of 114 for his career. Coincidentally, Contreras also has a career wRC+ of 114. On top of that, they have similar batting profiles. They strike out a lot, hit for power, and have improved their plate discipline as the years have gone on. The only really difference between Contreras is he’s more consistent than Sanchez. They are also both free agents after this year so when it comes down to it, I’m not sure it’s worth giving up prospects for a guy you can sign for just money after the season when you have a similar player already on the team. The guy to get, if you still want to move on from Sanchez, would be Carson Kelly from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kelly posted a 103 wRC+ and is a solid pitch framer. Or they could just stick with Sanchez. Sanchez’s possible saving grace is that he led the Yankees in OPS at home (.839). The only other Yankees to post an OPS .800 or better at Yankees Stadium, were Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo (Stanton just missed at .799). If he gets off to a slow start, I’d expect them to look to make a deal at the deadline. Max Stassi, fresh off a breakout year, is a free agent after the year and could be moved if the Angels fall out of contention early. Astros backup Jason Castro could be a lefty platoon option to Kyle Higashioka if he’s made available at any point during the season.
So how will the off-season pan out? Here are a few scenarios:
Best case scenario:
The Yankees go nuts after the lockout. They sign Correa to a record breaking $350 million, 10 year deal, sign Seiya Suzuki to a five year, $55 million deal, and swing a blockbuster deal with Oakland for Matt Olson and one of their pitchers. Sure they might have to give up Peraza, Gil, and Austin Wells, but they could get it done. Voit would either join them in Oakland or be dealt to Milwaukee for prospects like Zavier Warren and Korry Howell to restock the farm system a bit. Oh, and they shipped Sanchez out and traded for Carson Kelly. Look out 98 Yankees.
LeMahieu 2B/3B
Judge RF
Correa SS
Olson 1B
Stanton DH
Gallo CF
Suzuki LF
Kelly C
Torres/Urshela 2B/3B
Rotation:
Cole
Severino
Montgomery
Oakland Pitcher
Nestor (Taillon IL)
It’s pretty realistic too. Maybe the Kelly trade doesn’t happen and the Yankees only get one of Correa and Olson, but Correa and Rizzo and Story and Olson would be a pretty good haul assuming they can also add Suzuki and a pitcher.
Story/Correa SS
Judge RF
Olson/Rizzo 1B
Stanton DH
Suzuki LF
Gallo CF
Sanchez C
LeMahieu 2B/3B
Torres/Urshela 2B/3B
Then there’s the disaster scenario. They miss on Correa, Story, and Olson. They could still add a pitcher and a left fielder to platoon with Hicks, but with Andrelton Simmons at short and Anthony Rizzo at first, it won’t be an easy sell the fan base on the idea they can compete in a division with four 90 game winners from last year. I consider myself to be an optimist when it comes to the Yankees, but I hadn’t have a tough time thinking we had a chance to make it to the playoffs let alone the World Series
LeMahieu 2B/3B
Judge RF
Rizzo 1B
Stanton DH
Gallo LF/CF
Sanchez C
Joc Pederson/Hicks LF/CF
Torres/Urshela 2B/3B
Simmons SS
Before you say anything else, relax. I’m very confident that third option will not be the team. It will probably be months before we get answers on what the Yankees roster will look like, however. There is a lot of bad blood from the negotiations about returning to play post-Covid in 2020, but at the same time, neither can’t really afford to have another partial season after the one they had in 2020 because a lot of money will be lost. With two weeks left in 2021, a new CBA won’t be done until after the New Year unless there’s a surprise breakthrough in that time. Conventional wisdom says, there needs to be a resolution by early to mid-February for Spring Training or the regular season not to be interrupted in anyway. I may do my mock Hall of Fame ballot next week, but if not, may the force be with you have a happy and safe Christmas/New Year’s, etc. And get your booster if you haven’t.