Free Agency Preview/Plan
The season is over, options have been declined, waiver wire moves have been made, qualifying offers have been extended, and free agency has officially begun. I’ve already broken down the situation at every position and now I’m ready to unleash my master plan for the off-season. *Evil laugh* While most of the moves are moves I would make, I am also going to try to be as realistic as possible.
Payroll: Spotrac lists the Yankees current payroll at $223.6 million. However, when it comes to the luxury tax, Rougned Odor’s $12.3 million salary, which is being paid by the Rangers, and Giancarlo Stanton’s salary, paid partially by Marlins, their payroll drops to $204.3 million putting them $5.7 million under the luxury tax. However, because there’s no CBA yet, the luxury tax could go either higher or lower than it’s current $210 million price tag. The Yankees estimated payroll was $240-250 million range before the pandemic. I think the Yankees will spend towards the higher end and some have suggested they could go over. There’s also a chance that the CBA will include a salary floor, possibly as high as $100 million. I’ve always been in favor of the salary floor because it encourages teams to spend and compete. While it might be scary to see the Rays finally spend a little, the Yankees could potentially benefit too. Contracts like the deals of Aroldis Chapman and Aaron Hicks would be more movable. Right now, they’d likely need to attach a prospect to dump their salaries, however with a salary floor, they could be valuable to a teams under the floor. For example, a team like Miami or Cleveland could have interest in Hicks if the floor is implemented. If the owners and players can’t reach an agreement by December 1st, a lockout occurs and the whole offseason shuts down.
The next big day coming up is November 19th. That’s the deadline for adding players to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Despite having 39 men on the roster right now, they’re expected to have a bit of a logjam. They already added Donny Sands to the roster and he’ll likely be the third catcher. The next three guys the Yankees will likely cut from the roster are Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar, and Domingo German. All three are arbitration eligible non tender candidates. Frazier, the former top prospect, has been having vision issues stemming from his history of concussions since July 1st. He has been visiting specialists to get an official diagnosis and he has no time table for his return. I hope he’s able to continue his career, but the Yankees can’t tender him a contract without knowing if he’ll ever play again. Andujar burst onto the scene in 2018 and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. However, his poor defense pushed him to Left Field and he’s had injury issues that have kept him from being productive since his standout rookie season. German pitched in 2021 for the first time since his domestic violence suspension late in the 2019 season. He pitched to a 4.45 ERA and 4.32 FIP before an injury on July 31st. He only made one appearance after he was activated from the IL. German has an arbitration estimate of $2 million which is too steep for somebody who’s not guaranteed to make the opening day roster. That would give them four roster spots. One of them would infielder, Oswaldo Cabrera, who won MVP in Double A and put up video game like numbers in his short stay at Triple A to finish the year. The next spot would go to Stephen Ridings. Ridings became a fan favorite in his brief time in New York. In his major league debut, he struck out the side and hit 100 MPH. His hard sinker which produces both swings and misses and groundballs fits the blueprint for Yankee relievers that made them dominate after the deadline. The last two spots (for now) will go to outfielders Everson Pereira and Brandon Lockridge. Pereira had a breakout year in the minors. He hit 20 home runs in 49 games and slashed .303/.398/.636 which is good for a 1.084 OPS. He has a chance to not only shoot up prospect ranking lists this summer with a repeat performance, but could be on the fast track to the majors. Lockridge has blazing speed. He was given a 70 grade by MLB.com and a perfect 80 from Fangraphs on speed. Like Pereira, he had a breakout performance at Double A posted a 154 wRC+.
There’s one more prospect worthy of adding to the roster, Randy Vasquez. Relatively unknown until he was also included in the Joey Gallo deal, Vasquez dominated at Hudson Valley going 1.75 ERA and 1.49 FIP before being promoted to Somerset. He might continue his development by pitching in the Dominican Winter League this winter. He struck out 13.25 per nine innings at Hudson Valley as well and posted a groundball rate over 50 at all three minor league stops he made. They could designate somebody else for assignment. At the moment, Chris Gittens and Nick Nelson would probably be ranked at the bottom if you ranked every player on their 40 man roster, but they both have minor league options and at the moment, Gittens is the only true First Baseman on the roster besides Luke Voit, who seems destined to be traded. Instead, to clear the roster spot, I’ll make a trade. When it comes to trade targets, Matt Olson is likely to be on top of the Yankees list. The A’s first baseman rebounded from a poor pandemic season and had a career across the board. In addition to his offensive prowess, he was a finalist for what would have been his third Gold Glove Award before losing out to Yuli Gurriel. A’s Manager Bob Melvin left for San Diego seemingly hinting that they might start a tear down. The owners are notoriously cheap, they have a lot of free agents, and their stadium situation is up in the air and relocation rumors have started to surface. Olson is one of the biggest trading chips the A’s have. He’s not going to be cheap. A deal with the Yankees would involve two major league level infielders. The first piece would be Voit. While he went on the IL four different times this year, he lead the league in home runs in the pandemic shortened 2020 season. When he was healthy however, he posted a wRC+ of 111, meaning he was better than the league average hitter. He is also due to make less than half of what Olson makes. The next piece would be either Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, or Oswald Peraza. Personally, I’d rather keep Gleyber. Gleyber is younger, but he also walked at a higher rate, struck out less, and is one of the better base runners. He was second on the team in steals and was one of a few Yankees with a positive BsR (Baserunning Runs. The baserunning component of WAR). Urshela was better defensively and hit for more power however. Given Torres’s age, his move back to second, and a new hitting coach, it’s more likely that Gleyber can improve than Urshela. That leaves Urshela or Peraza. It depends on the A’s ambitions. If the A’s think they can cut payroll and still compete, they’d probably take Urshela and then ship off their Gold Glove winning Third Baseman, Matt Chapman. If they’re looking to enter rebuild mode, Peraza, a Shortstop prospect who was ranked in the Top 100 by MLB.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball America. I think the A’s would lean more towards Peraza, who jumped from High A ball to Triple A this year. Given the number of free agents they have and their history of not spending, they likely won’t be able to find enough replacements to stay competitive. The A’s would probably also want a pitching prospect from the Yankees as well. They have several on their 40 man already. Yoendrys Gomez is the further away from the majors, as he only threw 23 innings in A ball, but he is still fairly highly rated. If that’s not enough, the Yankees can send a Rule 5 eligible prospect to Oakland that they don’t want to lose for nothing. Catching prospect, Josh Breaux, would fit the bill after the Yankees choose to protect Donny Sands over him. The decision made sense because even though Breaux has more potential than Sands, he’s not as close to being ready as Sands. If one of the Yankees catchers were to get injured, Sands would have an easier time filling in. Breaux, missed part of the 2019 season due to injury and all of the 2020 season because the Minor League Baseball Season was canceled. There are also question marks about his defense. Some scouts believe that he could eventually move to first base down the road.
So if you complete the Olson trade and add Vasquez to the roster, you’d have 39 men on the roster. The money saved from non-tendering Andujar, Frazier, and German would pretty much offset the payroll added by the Olson trade.
On to free agency, which could potential be slowed down by a lockout. However, it seems like the Yankees are definitely signing a top Shortstop. It’s a deep class and they started Andrew Velazquez, who was waived and claimed by the Angels, in the Wild Card Game. Obviously, if DJ Le Mahieu was healthy, he wouldn’t have played, but Gleyber Torres struggled defensively at short, and Gio Urshela played decent, but it’s not his natural position. Carlos Correa should be number 1 on their board. Correa had the best year of his career winning the Gold Glove and leading American position players in WAR (not including Shohei Ohtani who plays both ways). He can hit, field, and had decent speed. I’m not sure they land him though. There’s history because of the Astros cheating scandal that took away a title from the Yankees in 2017. Money can change things and Correa did talk highly about the possibility of playing in New York, but more writers and experts have attached the Yankees to Corey Seager. Seager, who won the NCLS and World Series MVP, isn’t as good as Correa is defensively. He’s average to below average at Short and would likely eventually move to Third went star prospect, Anthony Volpe, is ready. However, he isn’t far behind Correa offensively, and his lefty bat would bring balance to the lineup. Personally, I might have went with Trevor Story has my backup plan if we couldn’t land Correa. His speed and defense are two attributes that Brian Cashman talked about adding in the off-season, but the Yankees Front Office has reportedly soured on Story, who they had discussions about acquiring at the deadline. Either way, the Yankees can’t go wrong. Either of these three, and even Marcus Semien, would make the team better. Jon Heyman reported 10 years $300 million is the likely price range for Seager, bringing the Yankees estimated payroll to $234 million.
The next position the Yankees will look is there starting pitching. The rotation was strength for the Yankees last year, but that doesn’t mean they should add an arm. Jameson Taillon had ankle surgery in late October and is out for five months. That puts him at a Late March return date so he’d be cutting it close. Luis Severino, will return to the rotation after missing almost all of the last two season recovering from Tommy John Surgery. One interesting possibility is Justin Verlander, who is also recently recovered from Tommy John. Verlander is set to today at Cressey’s Sports Performance. Cressey is Eric Cressey, the Yankees Director of Player Health and Performance, so it’s likely the Yankees will have scouts watching. The Yankees have shown they don’t have problems taking chances on guys coming off injury. They signed Corey Kluber and traded for Taillon last year after they pitched a combined one inning in 2020. There are a lot of variables to whether or not the Yankees end up with Verlander. First of all, how will he look? Second of all, how much will he get offered? And for how long? He’ll be 39 on opening day, but before his injury, he talked about pitching into his mid 40’s. The Astros also made him an $18 million qualifying offer for the 2022 season so if he leaves, the Astros get a draft pick, or he can stay. He generated so controversy in the playoffs by not traveling with the team on the road during the playoffs, but he dismissed the notion that it was a sign he was unhappy pointing to his rehab as a reason why he stayed back. I don’t blame him. He also has a super model wife so spending more time with her is probably better than staying in a hotel room. Regardless of whether he signs with the Yankees or not, I think the Verlander situation will resolve itself quickly.
So if not Verlander, who will the Yankees sign? Like I said before, for players with qualifying offer, you have to give up a pick to sign them. The Yankees would already being giving up one to sign a shortstop so I’m not sure they’d give up two. They also at around $234 million at this point so does two things would probably take them out of contention for some of the top arms. The best pitcher not received a qualifying offer is Carlos Rodon. I personally would touch him. He’s coming off a career year and he has a bit of an injury history. Jon Gray could be an attractive option for the Yankees. The Rockies offered him a three year extension in the $37-40 million range. He rejected it and then they didn’t hit him with a qualifying offer. Oops. Assuming the length was right, $15 million a year would probably do the trick. Gray was drafted by the Yankees back in the 10th round back in 2011. They tried blowing him away with a $500,000 offer (which is a lot more money than 10th rounders normally get), but he decided to transfer from Junior College to the University of Oklahoma. It worked out because he was drafted 3rd overall two years later. He has a career 4.59 ERA, but his career FIP is 3.91 and his ERA+ is 104, both signs that a move away from the high altitude in Coors Field would help his career. He has also 9.2 batters per nine innings over the span of his career and had a 48.4% groundball rate last year. Teams like the Yankees who rely on analytics (all though at this point almost every team relies on it at some level) love pitchers who strike guys out and/or get a lot of groundballs. Gray does both.
That would put the Yankees roster over 40. Once again, Gittens and Nelson are on the chopping block, or they can make a trade to clear a little money. As I said before, Gio Urshela is a trade candidate. It would make the Yankees so much better if he was in somewhat of a super utility role, but I can’t see it happening. Plenty of contending teams could use a Third Base:
Giants: Kris Bryant, who they traded for at the deadline, is a free agent. They still have Evan Longoria, but he’s aging and gets hurt a lot.
Mets: They were in the running for Bryant, but settled on his teammate, Javy Baez. The Mets could look to add a Third Baseman again after a disappointing season.
Mariners: After a surprise 90 win season, they declined their option on Corey’s brother, Kyle Seager.
Blue Jays: This is the weak spot of the Blue Jays powerful offense. Cavan Biggio was supposed to play their full time, but got injured and was ineffective when healthy, slipping into a platoon with Santiago Espinal.
Phillies: Despite all the money they’ve spent and playing in the worst division in baseball, they missed the playoffs again. Top prospect, Alec Bohm, was a flop last year both offensively and defensively.
Brewers: The Brewers traded for Eduardo Escobar at the deadline, but he was a rental. Right now, Luis Urias, who moved over from Short Stop, is penciled in to start at third.
Astros: There is a good chance Carlos Correa is leaving, which could lead to Alex Bregman sliding to Short.
There are plenty of good potential options for teams in need. Matt Chapman and Jose Ramirez, from the newly-renamed Guardians, are potential trade targets, and Bryant, Seager, and Escobar are free agents. Whoever misses out, here could be in the market for Urshela. The Brewers could be a match because I’m not sure they have a farm system strong enough to land Chapman or Ramirez and they aren’t known as big spenders either.
So we’re back to 40 men and our payroll is about $244 million. There are still a few more moves we can make. The first move, would be signing Aaron Judge to an extension. He’s a Top 10 position player in all of baseball and he’s in his last arbitration year before hitting free agency. They could opt to give him a pay raise from the $17 million he’s estimated to receive in arbitration, or they can sign him to aa deal starting in 2023. Either way, extending Judge is a must. There are however two more positions the Yankees could improve, Catcher and Center Fielder. Gary Sanchez is the most talked about Yankee in the off-season again. It’s hard to believe that just two years ago, he was an all star who hit 34 home runs. Thought to be a career Yankee when he burst onto the scene late in the 2016 season and when he became an all star the next season, Sanchez has regressed. The subpar offensive performances he’s given have also shed light on his below average defense. If he hits like he did in 2017, or even 2019, the defense can be ignored to some degree. In his “Hoch’s Happy Hour,” segment on Instagram Live, Bryan Hoch said that for the second straight year, the front office is divided on Sanchez. He did improve over his 2020 season, but that wasn’t hard considering it was the worst of his career. It makes sense that the front office is divided on him since he still had a wRC+ under 100 (league average) and the defense was shaky at time. The only thing that might save Gary is the lack of viable replacements. Mike Zunino’s option was picked up by Tampa and Tucker Barnhart was traded to Detroit from Cincinnati. There are very few guys who would be definite upgrades from Sanchez. Mitch Garver from the Minnesota Twins is by far the best potentially option on the trade block because he can hit and field. There aren’t many elite two way catchers anymore. Jacob Stallings from the Pirates could also be available through trade. He won the Gold Glove, but he’s a below average hitter. He’s a better pickup than Barnhart would have been for the Yankees. There are also rumors that Carson Kelly from the Diamondbacks could be available, but I’m not sure Stallings or Kelly would be a definite upgrade from Sanchez if the new Hitting Coach and Yankees front office think they can fix him. Willson Contreras could be traded, but he’s also a free agent next year so they might be able to just wait. The free agent market is even weaker. Unless they want to sign Yan Gomes as a one year stop gap, there are no upgrades from Sanchez behind the plate there. Using Gomes as a one year stopgap might not be a terrible idea. It gives them a year to see how top catching prospect, Austin Wells, is progressing defensively. If he progresses, they might be able to get away with a Kyle Higashioka/Donny Sands platoon. If not and the Yankees feel they need to move him to another position like First Base, they could always sign a guy like Contreras or Omar Narvaez in 2023. Sanchez still does have value around the league. He was (undeservedly) voted as a finalist for the Silver Slugger Award by managers and coaches. You can’t trade Sanchez for Garver because he’s a free agent after this year and that defeats the purpose for teams giving up a catcher with years of control left. So the best move would be to trade Sanchez else where and use prospects to get Garver.
That leaves Center Field. Aaron Hicks has been a solid contributor during his time with the Yankees when healthy. The problem is, he hasn’t been full healthy since 2018. In 2018, he had the third highest fWAR of any Center Fielder in baseball, trailing only Lorenzo Cain and Mike Trout. Unfortunately, he’s had two major surgeries since so he’ll never reach that level again. It doesn’t mean he can’t still be a productive player, but he’s already regressed a little defensively. He has four years and $40 million left on his contract so he’ll be hard to move. The need for a Center Fielder can be mitigated internally if the Yankees use the “goal line,” package of Judge, Stanton, and Gallo in the outfield more often while using a rotational DH. They could also still bring back Brett Gardner when Spring Training starts to add a 5th outfielder and all they’d need to do is move Zack Britton to the 60 day IL. They could also give Estevan Florial a shot at the the 5th outfield spot. There is also an alternate scenario:
Let’s say the Yankees can’t make a deal for Olson. They can use those prospects to get Garver and Byron Buxton from Minnesota, keep Hicks because Buxton also has an injury history despite being an elite outfielder, and trading Voit, Urshela, and Sanchez in separate deals to restock the farm system. To solve the First Base problem, they can just resign Anthony Rizzo to a short term deal.
Opening Day 2022: So after all the wheeling and dealing, this is how the Yankees look on
LeMahieu 3B
Judge CF/RF
Seager SS
Stanton OF/DH
Olson 1B
Garver C
Gallo OF
Torres 2B
Hicks/Odor/Higgy CF/2B/C/DH
Rotation:
Cole
Severino
Montgomery
Gray (Taillon IL)
Cortes/Gil (camp battle)
Bullpen:
Chapman
Loaisiga
Holmes
Peralta
King
Green
Luetge
Abreu (or Cortes/Gil battle Loser)
That’s a 100 win team. Maybe more. And the best part? We have an estimated $100 million coming off the books after this year. Even after sign Seager, Gray, and giving Aaron Judge a deal in the $30-35 million range, we will still have flexibility to spend more money next year. May the force be with you.